Electric Trucks Hit 50.3% of China Heavy-Truck Sales in September, in a Market Down 21%

Electric trucks were 50.3% of heavy trucks sold in China in September 2026, or 33,100 units, according to Electrek's compilation of CATL, Kpler and government data. The headline share needs its denominator: electric sales rose 37% year over year while the whole heavy-truck market fell 21%, so part of the share gain is a shrinking pie. Divide 33,100 by 0.503 and the September market was roughly 65,800 trucks.

The share has also been this high before and fallen. It reached 53.9% in December 2025 ahead of a subsidy expiry, then dropped to about 23% by March 2026, per the same report. One month is a datapoint; the year-to-date figure is the better guide.

China's heavy-truck share, month by month and year by year

For January through September 2026, electric heavy trucks sold 226,400 units, up 64%, a 38.1% share. Full-year 2025 was 231,100 units, up 182%, at 28.9%. In 2024 new-energy vehicles were 13.6% of trucks over 12 tonnes. September's tractor-unit share, the long-haul segment, was 64.5%.

1. 2024 (full year)13.6 %
2. 2025 (full year)28.9 %
3. March 202623 %
4. Jan-Sep 202638.1 %
5. December 2025 (peak)53.9 %
6. September 202650.3 %

Source: Electrek, Nov. 2, 2026, citing CATL, Kpler and Chinese government data; accessed 2026-11-02

Why fleets switched: price parity and a five-minute battery swap

Electrek says China got here the boring way, pricing electric trucks near diesel and building swap stations. An ICCT and CATARC study found battery-electric trucks about 19% cheaper per tonne-kilometre than diesel in good conditions, with the edge shrinking at low mileage or with heavy batteries. CATL claims savings of about 0.6 yuan per kilometre; that is a vendor figure.

CATL's Qiji swap network had about 300 heavy-truck stations at the end of 2025 and plans 900 by the end of 2026 and 2,000 in 2027. The new packs hold 432 kWh or 513 kWh and swap in about five minutes. In August, CATL agreed to pay 2.56 billion yuan, about $370 million, for nearly 25% of Qiyuan Green Power, which runs more than 1,600 stations. XCMG led 2025 sales with 15.4%, with SANY and FAW Jiefang behind it; the top three held 42.9%.

What it did to diesel and LNG

The displacement shows up in fuel. Kpler data in the Electrek report put diesel demand down about 420,000 barrels a day year over year in May, roughly 10%, and 460,000 in June. Kpler's full-year 2026 decline is about 230,000 barrels a day, with a 64,000 barrel rebound expected in 2027. Gross displacement is about 680,000 barrels a day, of which about 450,000 is LNG trucks and about 230,000 electric. Road freight grew about 3% through July.

LNG is the bigger loser. It held nearly 30% of the market in 2024; in March 2026 LNG had 37% against 23% for electric, and by July electric had 47% and LNG 11%. Monthly LNG registrations fell from over 30,000 to about 6,200.

Rhodium Group's July 2025 analysis gives the earlier baseline: electric models were 8.9% of heavy-duty sales in April 2025, about 20,000 units on an annual basis, and apparent diesel consumption had fallen from 4.7 million barrels a day in April 2023 to 4.0 million by April 2025. Rhodium's April 2025 share and Electrek's 28.9% for all of 2025 describe different windows, which is why the series climbs so steeply.

Region	Electric heavy-truck share	Source
China, September 2026	50.3%	Electrek
Europe, Jan-Sep 2026 (16+ tonnes)	2.5%, 5,120 trucks	ACEA, via Electrek
United States	Under 1%	Electrek estimate

Electrek also lists a policy push and a price shock behind the switch. Eleven Chinese government bodies set a 2030 target of 40% new-energy heavy-truck sales, 1.6 million trucks on the road, 30,000 kilometres of zero-carbon freight corridors and about 3,000 charging and swap stations. A spring fuel price spike tied to the Iran war pushed fleets toward electric as well, per the same report. Electrek's own editorial view is that this is "the biggest under-covered story in the EV industry right now".

Europe and the United States are a different market

ACEA registered 5,120 electric heavy trucks of 16 tonnes and up in Europe through September, up 59.9%, a 2.5% share against 1.7% a year earlier; diesel held 91.7%. Switzerland led at 24%, then Norway at 14.4%, the Netherlands at 11.1% and Sweden at 10.3%. Germany had the most units at 1,722.

No official U.S. electric Class 8 sales figure is published. Electrek's best indicator is a ZET SCALE order for 2,500 Tesla Semis; about 230,000 Class 8 trucks are sold a year, so the share is well under 1%. ICCT puts the median electric Class 8 tractor at $411,200 against $172,500 for diesel. Federal commercial EV tax credits ended in 2025 and California shelved its zero-emission truck rule.

What would change this read

If the 2026 share settles near the January-to-September 38.1% instead of September's 50.3%, the story is a strong but ordinary adoption curve. A second subsidy cliff would repeat the December-to-March swing. For the same pattern in two-wheelers, see Ola Electric's October registrations; for the grid side of battery build-out, four-hour battery storage against gas peakers in 43 markets. Kpler expects electric trucks to be about 8% of China's heavy trucks on the road by the end of 2026, so the installed fleet will lag sales for years.