ASML Guides Q4 Sales to €14.2 Billion-€15.2 Billion After a €11.7 Billion Third Quarter
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ASML Guides Q4 Sales to €14.2 Billion-€15.2 Billion After a €11.7 Billion Third Quarter
The lithography maker's release omits bookings, so the evidence for demand is guidance, capacity plans and a CEO's remark that customers want to order for 2029 and 2030.
ASML reported third-quarter net sales of €11.7 billion on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, and guided the fourth quarter to €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion, according to its Form 6-K. Net income was €5.0 billion on a gross margin of 57.5%.
The figure to watch is the step from Q3 to Q4. Guidance implies sales rising by roughly 22% to 30% in one quarter, after a rise of about 25% from the second quarter's €9.33 billion. A supplier with about 65 EUV and 130 DUV immersion systems of 2026 capacity does not see that from price alone; it is shipments landing.
The quarters, side by side
| Quarter | Net sales | Gross margin |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | €8.77 billion | not in sources |
| Q2 2026 | €9.33 billion | 54.0% |
| Q3 2026 | €11.66 billion | 57.5% |
| Q4 2026 (guidance) | €14.2-15.2 billion | about 57% |
The Q1 and Q2 figures come from Investing.com's report on the July 15 results. The Q3 and Q4 figures come from ASML's release.
- Q18.77 € billion
- Q29.33 € billion
- Q311.66 € billion
- Q4 guide14.7 € billion
Source: ASML Form 6-K, October 14, 2026; Investing.com, July 15, 2026
The Q4 bar is the midpoint of the guided range, drawn by us. ASML gave no single figure.
What ASML did not disclose
The release gives 113 new lithography systems and 8 used systems sold in the quarter, up from 86 new and 5 used in Q2. Installed Base Management sales, which cover upgrades and servicing of machines already in the field, were €3.3 billion against €2.8 billion in Q2.
It does not give net bookings, backlog, the split between EUV and DUV systems, the logic-versus-memory mix, or China's share of sales. Quilter Cheviot's Ben Barringer called the €13.2 billion of orders in the January 28 results "staggering" and said it was ASML's last order-number release, per Quilter's note. That leaves outsiders reading demand from guidance and capacity rather than from orders.
Capacity and the 2029 remark
In the Q2 results, ASML targeted about 65 low-NA EUV systems and about 130 DUV immersion systems in 2026, per Investing.com. The Q3 release says it plans a 30% increase in that capacity for 2027 and is investigating a further 30% for 2028. It gives no 2027 revenue outlook.
Christophe Fouquet, ASML's President and CEO, said customers are raising their short- and medium-term equipment forecasts, mainly on their views of AI-related investment. He also said planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand, and that some customers want to place orders for 2029 and 2030.
Two checks apply. Full-year guidance of €44 billion to €45 billion was held, not raised, even though Q3 landed near the top of the July range. And the customers' 2029 interest is Fouquet's characterisation; the release names no buyer. For how the tool roadmap behind those orders is moving, see our report on the 12-inch EUV mask commitment, and for the customer side of the ledger, TSMC's record revenue and coming price rises.
What would change my read is the Q4 print itself. If sales land below the €14.2 billion floor, the shipment-timing explanation weakens.
Sources
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