Micron Has Sold More Than 75% of Its 2027 Output, and Its Second Idaho Fab Starts Wafers in Late 2028

Micron Technology told investors on September 30 that it has no line of sight to the day memory supply catches up with demand, and that more than 75% of its output is already committed to customers for 2027. The number that matters here is not the record $54.23 billion quarter but the dates attached to the buildings that are supposed to end the shortage: the first Idaho fab starts wafer output in mid-calendar 2027, the second in late calendar 2028, and the New York fab in 2030.

The figures come from Micron's fiscal fourth-quarter release, filed as an 8-K exhibit, and from the earnings call, summarised in an Investing.com transcript.

What Micron reported for the quarter ended September 2026

Revenue was $54.23 billion for the quarter and $133.19 billion for fiscal 2026. GAAP gross margin was 86.8% for the quarter and 80.7% for the year. Net capital expenditure was $10.77 billion in the quarter and $27.37 billion for the year.

Guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 is $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion, which is 13% above the quarter just reported. Chairman and Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said in the release that Micron expects "an even stronger fiscal 2027".

Business unit	Q4 FY2026 revenue	Share of total
Core Data Center	$18,002 million	33%
Cloud Memory	$16,283 million	30%
Mobile and Client	$13,114 million	24%
Automotive and Embedded	$6,824 million	13%

The release does not break out DRAM, NAND or high-bandwidth memory revenue, so the table above is the finest cut available from the filing.

The product notes in the release show where the denser parts are going. Micron cites the industry's first 512GB DDR5 RDIMM modules at speeds up to 9,200 MT/s, says it has started sampling LPDDR6, and says revenue from its server LPDDR SOCAMM portfolio "more than doubled sequentially". On the call, Mehrotra also said memory content in level 4 and higher autonomous vehicles typically exceeds 200 gigabytes, a demand source that has nothing to do with chatbots.

The 75% figure and a labelling problem

On the call, Mehrotra said Micron expects "memory and storage supply demand conditions to be much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026", according to the transcript summary, and that "more than 75% of our output is already committed" for fiscal 2027. Coverage drawn from the same call, including a Slashdot item quoting Tom's Hardware, renders the other line as "In calendar 2027 as well as 2028, we see demand exceeding supply."

Those are different year labels for what reads as one claim. Micron's fiscal year does not match the calendar, so a buyer planning 2027 purchases should check which year the 75% describes before treating it as a calendar-year allocation.

The committed share has a second source. Chief Financial Officer Mark Murphy said Micron has 26 strategic customer agreements, which it estimates at over 35% of revenue through 2030.

Fab dates: mid-2027, late 2028, 2030

Mehrotra said the ID1 fab in Idaho "is on track to commence wafer output in mid calendar 2027" and ID2 "in late calendar 2028". He put initial wafer output at the New York fab in calendar 2030.

1. Q4 FY2026 actual10.77 $ billion
2. Q1 FY2027 plan11.5 $ billion
3. H1 FY2027 plan25 $ billion
4. All of FY2026 actual27.37 $ billion

Source: Micron Q4 FY2026 release and earnings call summary, accessed 2026-10-05

Murphy guided to capital expenditure of around $11.5 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 and about $25 billion for the first half. That is 91% of the whole of fiscal 2026 spend, in half the time.

Wafer output is the start of the chain, not the end. The call summary says nothing about when finished modules from either Idaho fab ship. Treat "late 2028" as the earliest date ID2 can begin to matter, not the date it does.

The demand side is physical too. The Google Lincoln data center peaks at 52.65 MW, one example of the power envelope that data-center memory ends up inside. The interconnect work in Homa's TCP replacement for AI clusters shows how much of that spend goes to moving data rather than storing it.

What the growth numbers say about 2027 and 2028

Mehrotra said industry DRAM bit shipments should grow in the low 20s percentage range in calendar 2027 and 2028, and that high-bandwidth memory demand will grow faster than conventional DRAM through calendar 2028. He described investment in cleanroom space as the way to "narrow the gap" between supply and demand.

The arithmetic of the denominator is unkind. If bits grow in the low 20s a year while AI demand is described as outrunning supply, the gap closes only if demand growth slows below that rate, and Micron did not forecast that. Its own sold-out position is what you would expect if the company believed it would not.

What would change my read is ID1 producing wafers earlier than mid-2027, or Micron guiding bit growth above the low 20s. Neither is in the filing. The next datapoint is Micron's fiscal first-quarter report, for which it guided $61.5 billion.