Megaconstellation Plans Hit a Supply Chain Where China Makes About 98% of the GaN

Filings and proposals for low-Earth-orbit satellites now run from Amazon's goal of more than 5,000 to a million-satellite orbital data centre idea, and the parts to build them come through a supply chain in which, Novaspace partner Carla Filotico told SpaceNews, China holds "around 98%" of gallium nitride production.

The figures come from a SpaceNews magazine feature by Hope Hodge Seck, published on 5 October 2026 and updated on 7 October. It draws on a 54-page Aerospace Industries Association and PwC analysis that isolated nine critical components behind the bottlenecks, built with about 30 industry professionals.

1. Estimated additions over the next few years70K satellites
2. Current LEO population (nearly)19K satellites
3. Blue Origin, proposed5400 satellites
4. Amazon, wanted in orbit (more than)5000 satellites

Source: SpaceNews, Resource competition intensifies with surge in megaconstellations, accessed 2026-10-13

19,000 satellites up, 70,000 more estimated

SpaceNews puts the low-Earth-orbit population at nearly 19,000 satellites and says some estimates project about 70,000 more in the next few years. Blue Origin has proposed 5,400, Chinese companies have filed for a larger number the piece does not count, and Elon Musk has talked about a constellation of 1 million. A photo caption in the feature ties that figure to SpaceX's proposed orbital data centre constellation of up to one million satellites.

The number that matters here is not 70,000 but the replacement rate. Filotico told SpaceNews that satellites need replenishing every four or five years depending on orbital height. Applying that to the 89,000 satellites implied by 19,000 plus 70,000 gives 17,800 to 22,250 replacements a year in steady state. That is arithmetic on the article's figures, not a number any company has forecast, and it assumes every one of the 70,000 is built.

The same source assumed an average of 500 kg per satellite. At that mass, 70,000 satellites is 35,000 metric tons to lift, again arithmetic and not a filing.

Where the parts run out

The feature names three pressure points, each with a named speaker or a figure.

Part	Figure or claim	Who
Gallium nitride	China produces around 98%	Carla Filotico, partner and managing director, Novaspace
Solar arrays	10,000 to 20,000 panels per megaconstellation at 1 to 2 arrays a satellite	SpaceNews, unattributed
Pressure vessels	One legacy supplier declined to rebid	SpaceNews, no supplier named

Filotico told SpaceNews that any restriction on gallium exports could cause a shortage that could hit at any time. The feature adds that RTX and Emirates Global Aluminum agreed in May 2025 to start gallium production in Abu Dhabi.

On the third row, SpaceNews reports that a legacy supplier declined to rebid composite overwrapped pressure vessels because the work would take about one-third of available engineering time for low single-digit revenue. The supplier is not named, so the claim rests on SpaceNews alone.

Why suppliers decline the work

Steve Jordan Tomaszewski, vice president of space systems at the Aerospace Industries Association, told SpaceNews that "companies right now are just looking at where they might be able to take additional risk." He also contrasted a space company buying 10 switchgears with an A.I. company buying 10,000 of them. That comparison explains the pressure vessel decision: the order book that justifies a production line is somewhere else.

Gurpartap Sandhoo, a director at the Space Development Agency, said the agency has had a demand signal, but that quality control and producing at scale have been a challenge. On the AIA's own diagnosis, Tomaszewski said the supply chain is a challenge because it is everybody's problem but also nobody's problem.

For the ground-based version of the compute question, see our reports on Intel's Crescent Island and its 480GB of memory and on the drone strike at Yandex's Sasovo hub. An orbital data centre would have to supply its own parts and its own protection.

The licensing side: 50 percent in six years

The Federal Communications Commission's interim rule requires half of a constellation's satellites to launch within six years of the licence grant. James E. Dunstan, senior counsel at the think tank TechFreedom, said on 9 April 2026 that megaconstellation licensees will likely need waivers to meet that milestone, and warned that applications could cover hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of satellites.

Dunstan's concern in that release was that the FCC's assembly-line process for applications will be choked without firm rules requiring deployment. Doug Stroup, president of the Satellite Industry Association, told SpaceNews that no one expected all of the earlier low-orbit filings to move forward.

On the 50 percent rule, a licensee with 100,000 satellites would owe 50,000 launched inside six years, or about 8,300 a year, equal to today's whole low-orbit population every 2.3 years. That is a hypothetical, not a filing.

What would change this read is a named second source for the gallium and pressure vessel claims, or a supplier going on record with a lead time. SpaceNews says the planned peak of the new launch wave is 2030, so supplier decisions in the next 12 months set what can fly.